Modelling and forecasting level shifts in absolute returns

Richard Paap, Philip Hans Franses () and Marco Juri van der Leij ()

Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2002, vol. 17, issue 5, pages 601-616

Abstract: Due to high and low volatility periods, time series of absolute returns experience temporary level shifts which differ in length and size. In this paper we modify the basic Censored Latent Effects Autoregressive [CLEAR] model, such that it can describe and forecast the location and size of such level shifts. For our particular application, we assume that technical trading variables may have explanatory value for future level shifts, where these effects may differ across upward- or downward-tending markets. A natural competitor of the resultant switching regime CLEAR [SR-CLEAR] model is a long-memory model, which is known to pick up neglected level shifts. Hence, when we apply the SR-CLEAR model to nine stock markets and document its good fit and forecasting ability, we compare it with a long-memory model. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Date: 2002
View list of references View citations in EconPapers

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/jae.690 Link to full text; subscription required (text/html)
http://qed.econ.queensu.ca:80/jae/2002-v17.5/ Supporting data files and programs (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:jae:japmet:v:17:y:2002:i:5:p:601-616

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www3.intersci ... e.jsp?issn=0883-7252

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Applied Econometrics is edited by M. Hashem Pesaran

More articles in Journal of Applied Econometrics from John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Series data maintained by Christopher F. Baum ().