Numeracy, frequency, and Bayesian reasoning

Gretchen B. Chapman and Jingjing Liu

Judgment and Decision Making, 2009, vol. 4, issue 1, pages 34-40

Abstract: Previous research has demonstrated that Bayesian reasoning performance is improved if uncertainty information is presented as natural frequencies rather than single-event probabilities. A questionnaire study of 342 college students replicated this effect but also found that the performance-boosting benefits of the natural frequency presentation occurred primarily for participants who scored high in numeracy. This finding suggests that even comprehension and manipulation of natural frequencies requires a certain threshold of numeracy abilities, and that the beneficial effects of natural frequency presentation may not be as general as previously believed.

Keywords: natural frequency; probability; numeracy; Bayesian; base rate. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
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