The retrospective gambler's fallacy: Unlikely events, constructing the past, and multiple universes

Daniel M. Oppenheimer and Benoit Monin

Judgment and Decision Making, 2009, vol. 4, issue 5, pages 326-334

Abstract: The gambler's fallacy (Tune, 1964) refers to the belief that a streak is more likely to end than chance would dictate. In three studies, participants exhibited a \textit{retrospective gambler's fallacy} (RGF) in which an event that seems rare appears to come from a longer sequence than an event that seems more common. Study 1 demonstrates this bias for streaks, while Study 2 does so with single rare events and shows that the appearance of rarity is more important than actual rarity. Study 3 extends these findings from abstract gambling domains into real world domains to demonstrate the generalizability of the effects. The RGF follows from the law of small numbers (Tversky \& Kahneman, 1971) and has many applications, from perceptions of the social world to philosophical debates about the existence of multiple universes.

Date: 2009
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