Testing the rationality of forecast revisions made by the IMF and the OECD

Masahiro Ashiya ()

Journal of Forecasting, 2006, vol. 25, issue 1, pages 25-36

Abstract: We investigate the rationality of forecast revisions made by the IMF and the OECD over the past three decades. We find that 60% of real-GDP forecast series and 37% of GDP-deflator forecast series are consistent with rationality. Forecast smoothing is found in real-GDP forecasts. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Date: 2006
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