A Random Walk Down Main Street: Can Experts Predict Returns on Commercial Real Estate?

David C. Ling ()
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David C. Ling: Center for Real Estate Studies, Warrington College of Business, University of Florida, P.O. Box 117168, Gainesville, FL 32611

Journal of Real Estate Research, 2005, vol. 27, issue 2, pages 137-154

Abstract: We examine the ability of experts, specifically institutional owners and managers, to predict commercial real estate return performance in major metropolitan markets and on various property types. We find no evidence that the consensus opinions on investment conditions contained in Real Estate Research Corporation?s quarterly Real Estate Investment Survey are useful in forecasting subsequent return performance. In fact, we document that RERC?s surveys are backward looking. The implications of these findings for investors are discussed.

JEL-codes: L85 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2005
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