An Econometric Model of Retail Rents in the United Kingdom

Sotiris Tsolacos
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Sotiris Tsolacos: Centre for Spatial and Real Estate Economics Department of Economics Faculty of Urban and Regional Studies The University of Reading Whiteknights, PO Box 219 Reading, RG6 2AW England, http://www.rdg.ac.uk/AcaDepts/le/home.html

Journal of Real Estate Research, 1995, vol. 10, issue 5, pages 519-530

Abstract: The present study constructs a model of retail rent determination at the aggregate level in the United Kingdom. While recognising the influence of very localised factors in the determination of retail rents, this paper explores the importance of broad economic forces and trends in the retail property market as determinants of retail rental values. A dynamic specification based on GDP, consumer expenditure and past values of retail rents in the U.K. This model provides satisfactory results and it is subsequently used to produce dynamic forecasts four quarters ahead. The forecasts suggested that U.K. retail rents would exhibit a slight recovery in the second half of 1994 terminating the downward trend since the first quarter of 1990. However, a small drop again was forecast for the first half of 1995.

JEL-codes: L85 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1995
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