Random Disaggregate Appraisal Error in Commercial Property: Evidence from the Russell-NCREIF Database
David M. Geltner (),
Richard A. Graff and
Michael S. Young ()
Additional contact information David M. Geltner: Finance Department College of Business Administration University of Cincinnati Cincinnati, Ohio 45221-0195, http://www.cba.uc.edu/dept/fin/ Richard A. Graff: Electrum Partners 400 North Michigan Avenue Suite 1200 Chicago, Illinois 60611, http://www.cbe.wsu.edu/~fire/
Abstract:
This paper examines the magnitude of random disaggregate appraisal valuation error in institutional-grade commercial property. Unlike previous transactions-based studies of appraisal error, we use a much larger database that is not restricted to sold properties, and we employ a methodology that focuses on appraisal error rather than the difference between transaction price and previous appraised value. Our model gives a point estimate of 11.07% for the standard error of appraisals in the Russell-NCREIF database, with a robust range of 6% to 13%.
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