Unemployment and Inflation Consequences of Unexpected Election Results

Michael Berlemann () and Gunther Markwardt

Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2007, vol. 39, issue 8, pages 1919-1945

Abstract: The empirical evidence toward rational partisan theory of business cycles is mixed and thus inconclusive. This is due to the enormous heterogeneity of the existing empirical studies. Only a few of these test explicitly for the central theoretical innovation that post-electoral blips in economic activity depend on the degree of the electoral surprise. Using polling data we present empirical evidence in favor of rational partisan theory for a panel of OECD countries. Copyright 2007 The Ohio State University.

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