Consolidação fiscal nos Estados brasileiros: uma análise de duração [Fiscal consolidation in Brazilian States: a duration analysis]

Bruno de Paula Rocha and Fabiana Rocha
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Bruno de Paula Rocha: USP
Fabiana Rocha: USP

Nova Economia, 2008, vol. 18, issue 2, pages 193-223

Abstract: The objective of this paper is to analyze the duration of fiscal consolidation of Brazilian states in the period 1986-2001. For this propose, we applied the duration models methodology. We sought to establish the main characteristics that explain the probability that a state would remain in fiscal balance, once it has achieved that position. The non-parametric results suggest that the probability that fiscal consolidation will be maintained falls dramatically after the first year and even more after the second year. Parametric analysis shows that there is a core of relevant variables, such as the Number of Failures, the Personnel Costs/Net Current Revenue ratio, the dummy variable for the years before the Brazilian Constitution of 1988, the dummy variable for the years after the refinance law 9496/97 and the polarization in the preferences of the parties that compose the Legislative Assembly.

Keywords: fiscal consolidation; duration analysis; Brazil (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H70 C41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008

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