Are We Understanding the Impact of Economic Conditions on Welfare Rolls?Dan Black () and
Terra McKinnish
Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), 2002, vol. 5, issue 4, pages 489-505 Abstract: In this paper, we argue that welfare participation is more sensitive to economic conditions than previously believed. Why? Prior research focused on short-term economic fluctuations and ignored differences between high- and low-skilled workers. As welfare reform is long-term (i.e., permanent) it makes more sense to make comparisons with long-term economic trends. Also, since low-skilled workers are more likely to end up on welfare, it is proper to focus on their economic opportunities. Thus, we focus on the long-term impact of economic conditions on welfare participation, and we concentrate our analysis on low-skilled workers. Specifically, we analyze long-term changes in the supply of high-paying jobs for coal and steel workers as they affect certain heavy coal and steel-producing regions of the United States during the 1970s and 1980s. Our findings indicate that welfare participation in these regions closely mirrors the long-term local availability of high-paying jobs for low-skilled workers. This has serious policy implications for the long-term success of welfare reform. Keywords: Government programs; provision and effects of welfare programs Macroeconomics; employment; unemployment; wages; wage indexation (search for similar items in EconPapers) There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it. Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ozl:journl:v:5:y:2002:i:4:p:489-505 Access Statistics for this article More articles in Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE) from The Centre for Labour Market Research (CLMR), Curtin Business School |
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