Modeling Aggregate Use of IMF Resources—Analytical Approaches and Medium-Term Projections

Atish Ghosh, Manuela Goretti (), Bikas Joshi, Alun Thomas and Juan Zalduendo

IMF Staff Papers, 2008, vol. 55, issue 1, pages 1-49

Abstract: This paper presents two approaches to modeling the use of IMF resources from the General Resources Account in order to gauge whether the recent decline in credit outstanding is a temporary or a permanent phenomenon. The two approaches—the time-series behavior of credit outstanding and a two-stage program selection and access model—yield the same conclusion: the use of IMF resources is likely to decline sharply. Specifically, credit outstanding is projected to decline from an average of SDR 50 billion over 2000–05 to an average of about SDR 8 billion over 2006–10. Stochastic simulations suggest that it is unlikely to be much higher. These results are based on the IMF's World Economic Outlook projections with a correction for historically observed overoptimistic biases. In addition, alternative scenarios assuming weaker economic performance or a less benign global economic environment do not materially alter these results. IMF Staff Papers (2008) 55, 1–49; doi:10.1057/palgrave.imfsp.9450031

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