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DISPERSION OF INFLATION EXPECTATIONS IN THE EUROPEAN UNION DURING THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS

Jan Acedanski () and Julia Wlodarczyk ()
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Jan Acedanski: University of Economics in Katowice, Poland
Julia Wlodarczyk: University of Economics in Katowice, Poland

Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, 2016, vol. 11, issue 4, pages 737-749

Abstract: Inflation expectations, both their median and dispersion, are of great importance to the effectiveness of monetary policy. The goal of this paper is to examine the impact of the global financial crisis on dispersion of inflation expectations in the European Union. Using European Commission’s survey data, we find that in the early phase of the crisis the dispersion dropped rapidly but then, after Lehman Brothers’ collapse, the trend reversed and these fluctuations cannot be explained by movements of inflation rates and other commonly used factors. We also observe that, in the new European Union member states, the initial drop of the dispersion was weaker whereas the subsequent rise was stronger as compared to the old member states.

Keywords: inflation expectations; survey data; global financial crisis; European Union (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C33 C42 D84 E31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pes:ierequ:v:11:y:2016:i:4:p:737-749

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