Empirical Test of the Efficiency of Currency Investments

Svend Reuse and Martin Svoboda

Prague Economic Papers, 2011, vol. 2011, issue 2, pages 99-119

Abstract: The portfolio theory and the basic ideas of Markowitz can be applied to currency investments as well as to classical asset classes as shares or bonds. The question whether currency investments can be treated as efficient asset classes is not finally answered in theory and practice. This article applies a modified historical simulation approach to shares, bonds and currencies. The questions according to the efficiency of currency investments are answered empirically from a euro-investor´s point of view. The empirical analysis leads to the result that currency investments are not efficient in general. Some specific cases exist. The used data lead to the result that the Czech koruna seems to be an efficient asset class and leveraging a euro portfolio by other currencies is useful as well. But it has to be doubted if these effects will remain in the future.

Keywords: portfolio theory; leveraging by currencies; historical simulation; financial crisis; currency investment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F31 G11 G14 G15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
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