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The Commodity Futures Contract Pricing Using Spot Price Dynamics: Implication of Models in Iran’s Gold Futures Market

Hossein Esmaeili Razi (), Rahim Dallali Esfahani (), Saeid Samadi () and Afshin Parvardeh ()
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Hossein Esmaeili Razi: Assistant Professor of Economics and Banking, Institute of Hasht Behesht
Rahim Dallali Esfahani: Professor of Economics, University of Isfahan
Saeid Samadi: Associate Professor of Economics, University of Isfahan
Afshin Parvardeh: Associate Professor of Statistics, University of Isfahan

Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics, 2015, vol. 2, issue 3, pages 145-164

Abstract: Economic growth is the main purpose of economic policies. However, when economic growth is rapid we have serious environmental harm. Hence, a potential contrast between the economic policies and environmental state is stated in the Environmental Kuznets Curve.The main purpose of this study was to estimate the static and dynamic environmental Kuznets curve for the Iranian economy with assuming renewable and fossil energy simultaneously in the model. On the other hand, in this study we considered non-linear pollution function. In order to estimate the parameters related to this function should be used nonlinear methods. In this study, environmental Kuznets curve is estimated using genetic algorithms, (accurate method for numerical optimization). Comparison of the model predictions shows that the power of LAD in prediction is better than the least squared errors (LS). Also the dynamic model is powerful than static model. The results further indicate that the Iranian economy is located on the upward of environmental Kuznets curve. The other hand 12% of the total energy must be used by renewable energy, in order to Iranian economy perch at the critical point of environmental Kuznets curve.

Keywords: ¬Pollution; Fossil Energy; Renewable Energy; Environmental Kuznets Curve; Least Absolute Deviation Error (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q29 Q42 Q43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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