A MODEL TO FORECAST THE MONTHLY INFLATION IN ROMANIA

Elena Pelinescu and Andrei Silviu Dospinescu ()
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Andrei Silviu Dospinescu: Institute for Economic Forecasting

Journal for Economic Forecasting, 2005, vol. 2, issue 3, pages 37-58

Abstract: This paper is organized in two parts, the presentation of the model of inflation for Romania, and the results of different scenarios starting from the base model. The purpose of the paper is to present an efficient instrument for the simulation and research of inflation and its determinants in Romania, with a focus on the short-term impact of the changes in money, foreign exchange and wage policies and controlled prices, as well as the impact of the external shocks, such as the international oil price, on the future inflation in Romania.

Keywords: inflation; price; forecasting and simulation; VAR (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 E37 C53 P22 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2005

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Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rjr:romjef:v:2:y:2005:i:3:p:37-58

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