ESTIMATING THE EXPECTED UNEMPLOYMENT AS A FUNCTION OF THE SPEED OF RESTRUCTURING – THE CASE OF ROMANIA

Adriana Agapie ()

Journal for Economic Forecasting, 2000, issue 2, pages 63-77

Abstract: The paper presents an econometric estimation for the Aghion and Blanchard (1994) model of the speed of transition for the case of Romania. All the econometric estimations were done by means of three stochastic optimization algorithms (RGS, RSGBOOT and SA), after preliminary Monte Carlo experiments were performed on each particular function involved. The results confirm that in fact an attempt to real privatization started no sooner than 1997. The paper ends with an estimation of the expected inflation, as function of the speed of restructuring, in the NAIRU framework.

Keywords: unemployment; transition; optimization algorithm; Monte Carlo; NAIRU (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C61 E24 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2000

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Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2000:i:2:p:63-77

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