Forecasting industrial production and the early detection of turning points

Giancarlo Bruno () and Claudio Lupi ()

Empirical Economics, 2004, vol. 29, issue 3, pages 647-671

Abstract: In this paper we propose a simple model to forecast industrial production in Italy up to 6 months ahead. We show that the forecasts produced using the model outperform some popular forecasts as well as those stemming from an ARIMA model used as a benchmark and those from some single equation alternative models. We show how the use of these forecasts can improve the estimate of a cyclical indicator and the early detection of turning points for the manufacturing sector. This is of paramount importance for short-term economic analysis. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2004

Keywords: Forecasting; VAR models; industrial production; cyclical indicators; C53; C32; E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004
View citations in EconPapers

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00181-004-0203-y (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
Working Paper: Forecasting Industrial Production and the Early Detection of Turning Points (2003)
Working Paper: Forecasting Industrial Production and the Early Detection of Turning Points (2001)
Working Paper: Forecasting Industrial Production and the Early Detection of Turning POints (2001)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:empeco:v:29:y:2004:i:3:p:647-671

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://link.springer.de/orders.htm

Access Statistics for this article

Empirical Economics is edited by Badi H. Baltagi, Heather M. Anderson and Bernd Fitzenberger

More articles in Empirical Economics from Springer
Series data maintained by Christopher F Baum ().