The dynamics of Italian public debt: alternative paths for fiscal consolidation

Paolo Casadio, Antonio Paradiso and B. Bhaskara Rao

Applied Economics Letters, 2012, vol. 19, issue 7, pages 635-639

Abstract: This article analyses possible targets for the Italian debt-to-GDP ratio with a small macroeconomic model. The role of international macroeconomic variables such as the US GDP growth, prices of raw materials, EUR/USD exchange rate and European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy stance and domestic policy instruments is analysed in the debt dynamics. We find that external conditions play a fundamental role for the Italian fiscal consolidation. To reach a target of 100% of debt-to-GDP ratio by 2020, a further growth-sustaining policy has to be implemented.

Date: 2012
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