Are economic tracking portfolios useful for forecasting output and inflation in Austria?

Burkhard Raunig

Applied Financial Economics, 2007, vol. 17, issue 13, pages 1043-1049

Abstract: We construct economic tracking portfolios from Austrian stock market returns, euro/dollar exchange rate changes and changes in the oil price to extract revisions of market expectations about future industrial production growth and inflation in Austria. The forecasting ability of the portfolios is evaluated in-sample and in a pseudo out-of-sample forecasting experiment. It turns out that the tracking portfolios track both target variables in-sample. The portfolios also help to forecast annual industrial production growth out-of-sample. The predictive ability of the tracking portfolios for inflation is rather low.

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.informawo ... 40C6AD35DC6213A474B5 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.tandf.co.uk/journals/subscription.html

Access Statistics for this article

Applied Financial Economics is edited by Mark P. Taylor

More articles in Applied Financial Economics from Taylor and Francis Journals
Series data maintained by Christopher F. Baum ().