Managing price risks using and local polynomial kernel forecasts

Minkyoung Kim, Philip Garcia and Raymond Leuthold

Applied Economics, 2009, vol. 41, issue 23, pages 3015-3026

Abstract: This study contributes to understanding price risk management through hedging strategies in a forecasting context. A relatively new forecasting method, nonparametric local polynomial kernel (LPK), is used to forecast prices and to generate ex ante hedge ratios. The selective multiproduct hedge based on the LPK price and hedge ratio forecasts is in general found to be better than continuous hedging, no hedging and alternative forecasting procedures. Selective multivariate hedging using the LPK is found to improve hog producer's expected returns. The findings indicate that combining hedging with forecasts, especially when using the LPK procedure, can improve price risk management.

Date: 2009

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