Forecast of the expected non-epidemic morbidity of acute diseases using resampling methods

Andres Alonso and Juan Romo

Journal of Applied Statistics, 2005, vol. 32, issue 3, pages 281-295

Abstract: In epidemiological surveillance it is important that any unusual increase of reported cases be detected as rapidly as possible. Reliable forecasting based on a suitable time series model for an epidemiological indicator is necessary for estimating the expected non-epidemic indicator and to elaborate an alert threshold. Time series analyses of acute diseases often use Gaussian autoregressive integrated moving average models. However, these approaches can be adversely affected by departures from the true underlying distribution. The objective of this paper is to introduce a bootstrap procedure for obtaining prediction intervals in linear models in order to avoid the normality assumption. We present a Monte Carlo study comparing the finite sample properties of bootstrap prediction intervals with those of alternative methods. Finally, we illustrate the performance of the proposed method with a meningococcal disease incidence series.

Keywords: Morbidity prediction; epidemiological time series; sieve bootstrap (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2005
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