Physician Specialty Choice under Uncertainty

Sean Nicholson

Journal of Labor Economics, 2002, vol. 20, issue 4, pages 816-847

Abstract: Medical students must receive residency training in a specialty before they can practice medicine in the United States. Since the residents' salaries do not adjust across specialties, residency positions are rationed, and medical students face uncertainty when choosing a specialty. Using a data set with the preferred and realized specialties for 7,200 medical students, I estimate a model where students consider entry probabilities when selecting a specialty. I find that medical students are responsive to expected income differences between specialties, which implies that policies that increase the income of primary care physicians can address shortages in these specialties.

Date: 2002
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