PREDICTING REAL ECONOMIC GROWTH IN FRANCE, GERMANY, NEW ZEALAND, AND THE UNITED KINGDOM

Ivan O. Kitov ()

Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, 2010, vol. 5, issue 1(11)_Spring2010, pages 48-54

Abstract: The growth rate of real GDP per capita is modeled and predicted at various time horizons for France, Germany, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom. The rate of growth is represented by a sum of two components – a gradually decreasing trend and fluctuations related to the change in country-specific age population. The trend is an inverse function of real GDP per capita with constant numerator. Previously, similar models were developed and validated for the USA and Japan.

Keywords: real GDP per capita; modeling; prediction; population (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E1 E3 O4 O5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ush:jaessh:v:5:y:2010:i:5(1)_spring2010:p:92

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