EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

The accuracy of alternative GDP growth forecasts: Do they represent a credible alternative to the official ones?

Šindelář Jiří ()
Additional contact information
Šindelář Jiří: University of Finance and Administration, Prague. Address: Estonská 500, 101 00 Praha 10

Review of Economic Perspectives, 2015, vol. 15, issue 3, pages 291-304

Abstract: The paper deals with the accuracy of the real GDP growth forecasts produced by two Czech non-governmental institutions: the Czech-Moravian Confederation of Trade Unions (CMKOS) and the Czech Banking Association (CBA) in the years 2007-2014 and 2011-2014 respectively. Utilizing a research method composed of simple (AFE), scale-dependent (RMSE) as well as relative (MASE) error measures, we found out that (i) CMKOS predictions achieved a lower forecasting error on average, beginning with a notable overestimation in the first turnover point from growth to decline (2008-2009), yet followed by gradual improvement resulting in superior accuracy over set benchmarks (Ministry of Finance, Czech National Bank, OECD) in later years (2010-2014). The CBA predictions, on the other hand, exhibited (ii) a high level of interconnection with official bodies (MF, CNB), but with overall inferior forecasting accuracy, despite the shorter time frame (2011-2014). Overall, the study suggests that of the two surveyed non-governmental bodies, only CMKOS forecasts represent a viable alternative to the official predictions published by the Ministry of Finance or the Czech National Bank, as CBA forecasts were found to be a less accurate satellite of these bodies.

Date: 2015
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.degruyter.com/view/j/revecp.2015.15.is ... -0021.xml?format=INT (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:vrs:reoecp:v:15:y:2015:i:3:p:291-304:n:3

Access Statistics for this article

Review of Economic Perspectives is currently edited by Antonín Slaný

More articles in Review of Economic Perspectives from De Gruyter Open
Series data maintained by Peter Golla ().

 
Page updated 2017-02-14
Handle: RePEc:vrs:reoecp:v:15:y:2015:i:3:p:291-304:n:3