Medium-term Growth Subdued by Effects of the Financial Crisis. Forecast for the Austrian Economy until 2013

Josef Baumgartner (), Serguei Kaniovski () and Ewald Walterskirchen
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Ewald Walterskirchen: WIFO

WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), 2009, vol. 82, issue 1, pages 49-60

Abstract: At 1.3 percent per year the Austrian economy will expand only half as rapidly in 2009-2013 as in 2004-2008 (2.7 percent per year). The current forecast period is characterised by very heterogeneous developments: during 2009 and 2010 the Austrian economy will be fully hit by the international financial crisis. From 2010 onwards a recovery can be expected, if confidence in the financial markets is restored by then. Even during the peak years of the cycle (2011-2013) GDP growth will not regain its average of the five most recent years, because the world economy will only gradually overcome the consequences of the housing and financial crisis and because the main trading partner Germany will suffer severely from the slump in the capital goods and car industries. In addition, the growing uncertainty will make it difficult for private households to incur new debt for housebuilding and consumption and due to the financial crisis businesses will face limited access to venture capital.

Keywords: Mittelfristige; Prognose; Österreich (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009

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