What makes a blockbuster? Economic analysis of film success in the United Kingdom

Alan Collins, Chris Hand () and Martin C. Snell
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Martin C. Snell: Department of Economics, University of Portsmouth, Milton, Southsea, Hants, UK, Postal: Department of Economics, University of Portsmouth, Milton, Southsea, Hants, UK

Managerial and Decision Economics, 2002, vol. 23, issue 6, pages 343-354

Abstract: In this paper, we attempt to evaluate whether a film's commercial performance can be forecast. The statistical distribution of film revenues in the UK is examined and found to have unbounded variance. This undermines much of the existing work relating a film's performance to its identifiable attributes within an OLS model. We adopt De Vany and Walls' approach and transform the revenue data into a binary variable and estimate the probability that a film's revenue will exceed a given threshold value; in other words, the probability of a blockbuster. Furthermore, we provide a sensitivity analysis around these threshold values. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Date: 2002
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Working Paper: What Makes a Blockbuster? Economic Analysis of Film Success in the United Kingdom (2001)
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