Modelling employment durations of NHL head coaches: turnover and post-succession performance

Rick Audas, John Goddard and W. Glenn Rowe
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Rick Audas: Faculty of Medicine, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's, NL, Canada A1B 3V6, Postal: Faculty of Medicine, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's, NL, Canada A1B 3V6
John Goddard: School of Business and Regional Development, University of Wales, Bangor, Gwynedd, LL57 2DG, UK, Postal: School of Business and Regional Development, University of Wales, Bangor, Gwynedd, LL57 2DG, UK
W. Glenn Rowe: Paul MacPherson Chair in Strategic Leadership, Richard Ivey School of Business, The University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada N6A 3K7, Postal: Paul MacPherson Chair in Strategic Leadership, Richard Ivey School of Business, The University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada N6A 3K7

Managerial and Decision Economics, 2006, vol. 27, issue 4, pages 293-306

Abstract: Match-level National Hockey League (NHL) data are used to identify factors likely to trigger the departure of a team's coach, and to measure the short-term impact on subsequent match results. There is a statistically significant link between individual match results and the job departure hazard for up to 15 games prior to the point of departure. The hazard depends on the team's current standing within its conference relative to a pre-season forecast, recent performance in the Stanley Cup, the coach's age and previous employment with his present team as a player. After controlling for a mean-reversion effect, teams that changed their coach within-season are found to perform worse subsequently than those that did not, but the negative effect is short-lived. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Date: 2006
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