A MAXENT MODEL FOR MACROSCENARIO ANALYSIS

Simone Landini (), Corrado Di Guilmi () and Mauro Gallegati ()
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Simone Landini: IRES Piemonte–Socioeconomic Research Institute of Piedmont, via Nizza 18, 10125, Turin, Italy

Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), 2008, vol. 11, issue 05, pages 719-744

Abstract: In this paper, starting from Jaynes' MaxEnt methodology [10, 11], we follow the original idea of Aoki [1] to implement a canonical MaxEnt inference model for the replication of industrial firms' dynamics over a space of economic states. We develop an aggregate model to infer the distributions of agents at meso level using representative states. In particular, we estimate the access probability for agents in different states consistently with macroscopic economic constraints. The model is calibrated on the basis of a sample of firms, drawn from the AMADEUS database, within the manufacturing industry made up of nine sectors of economic activity from 1995 to 2004, and results come to experimental proof at aggregate macroscopic level.

Keywords: Statistical mechanics; canonical ensemble; MaxEnt; Gibbs distribution; econophysics; Cobb–Douglas technology (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
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