Agricultural Incomes Development in EU till 2030: Scenario Analysis of Main Driving Factors

Andrzej Tabeau, Hans van Meijl (), Martin Banse () and Geert Woltjer ()

No 48115, 108th Seminar, February 8-9, 2008, Warsaw, Poland from European Association of Agricultural Economists

Abstract: Europe’s rural areas are expected to witness rapid changes due to developments in demography, (agricultural) policies, global trade, climate change, technology and enlargement of the European Union. These changes will affect farmers’ production and income level and make the final outcome of this process uncertain. This paper tries to assess this uncertainty by analyzing the results of 34 scenarios of the EURURALIS project. The scenario outcomes were used to investigate agricultural income development and to analyze the impact of different combinations of macroeconomic and policy factors on agricultural income. The results of these scenarios were achieved in a modeling framework consisting of a modified version of the Global Trade Analysis Project model (GTAP) and the more ecological-environmental oriented Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE).

Keywords: Agricultural incomes and production; agricultural policy; long-term scenarios (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
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Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ags:eaa108:48115

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