Abstract:
In literature, impact estimates of agricultural biotechnology vary strongly according to the region, the crop, the year, the scale, and the methodology of the study. Therefore, this paper provides a methodological background for analysing, interpreting, and comparing these estimates. All possible uncertainties entailed in the estimation procedure are reviewed as well as a methodology to incorporate them into a stochastic simulation model. This procedure can be used to assess the welfare effects of agricultural biotechnology in the European Union.