A CGE Analysis of the Harbinson Proposal: Outcomes for the EU25

George Philippidis, L.J. Hubbard and Alan Renwick

No 45992, Working Papers from Scottish Agricultural College, Land Economy Research Group

Abstract: In this study, we employ the Harbinson proposal and July Framework to compare a ‘likely’ Doha scenario with an ‘inclusive’ baseline. The key aim is to assess the impacts across EU member states. More specifically, we (i) employ the latest version 6 of the GTAP database, (ii) explicitly model CAP mechanisms (e.g., quotas, decoupled payments, set-aside, CAP budget etc.) to more accurately assess the asymmetric trade led welfare effects on selected EU member states, and (iii) introduce binding overhangs into domestic support, export subsidies and more importantly market access commitments. Whilst the EU regions benefit from the multilateral reform proposals, the gains are weakened considerably by the tariff binding overhangs, where the EU25 only gain ten per cent of their potential trade led welfare gain from the proposals. On this basis, a more positive stance must be applied if the Doha Reforms are to yield a meaningful outcome for all.

Date: 2006-05
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