Abstract:
economists, engineers, and others to formulate and study methods to evaluate industrial research and development R&D projects. In this paper, my purposes are (1) to describe the results of recent studies to measure (ex post) the social benefits from industrial innovations, (2) to indicate the sorts of -ex-an-te evaluation techniques described in the literature and the extent to which they are used by American firms, (3) to provide measures of the biases and errors contained in ex ante estimates of development cost, development time, and the profitability of new processes and products, and (4) to indicate the effects on probabilities of success of how quickly ex ante economic evaluations are made.