ACORDO DE LIVRE COMÉRCIO MERCOSUL - UNIÃO EUROPÉIA: UMA ESTIMATIVA DOS IMPACTOS NO COMÉRCIO BRASILEIRO

Honorio Kume, Guida Piani, Pedro Miranda and Marta Reis Castilho ()

Anais do XXXII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 32th Brazilian Economics Meeting] from ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]

Abstract: In May 2004, the Mercosur and the European Union made their last offers in their negotiations for trade liberalization aiming to reach a Free Trade Agreement in the near future. In this paper the authors intend to evaluate the impacts of both offers on the Brazilian foreign trade. The estimated results indicate additional exports of 947 million dollars, 40% of which consisting of sales of just one product: ethanol. Nevertheless, the increase in ethanol exports depends on changes in demand provoked by the implementation of a new environmental policy in the European Union. The additional Brazilian imports were estimated in 1,3 billion dollars. The analysis shows that the on going negotiations on goods clearly involve two different agreements: one of an ambitious liberalization for industrialized products and another of a quite restricted liberalization for agricultural processed goods. The unbalanced results would probably worsen if the service sector had been included in the analysis.

JEL-codes: F13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004

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