L’Indicateur Synthétique Mensuel d’Activité (ISMA): une révision

Olivier Darné and Brunhes-Lesage, V.

Documents de Travail from Banque de France

Abstract: This paper proposes new bridge equations for the Monthly Index of Business Activity (MIBA) published by the Banque de France. The MIBA is a forecasting tool for the quarterly GDP growth in France both for the current quarter and the next quarter, originally based on the surveys in the industrial sector published in the Monthly Business Survey (MBS) conducted by the Banque de France. Two improvements are suggested: first, from a technical viewpoint, we use an automatic model selection procedure which brings a robust, clear and systematic framework for selecting variables; second, from a modelling viewpoint, we take into account the business surveys in the services sector published by the Banque de France. The forecasting performance of the different models is evaluated.

Keywords: Conjunctural analysis; GDP forecasting; Bbridge equations; Business surveys. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C42 C53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007
View list of references

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.banque-france.fr/fr/publications/telechar/ner/ner171.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bfr:banfra:171

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Documents de Travail from Banque de France
Address: Banque de France 31 Rue Croix des Petits Champs LABOLOG - 49-1404 75049 PARIS
Contact information at EDIRC.
Series data maintained by Thierry Demoulin ().