PIB potentiel et écart de PIB: quelques évaluations pour la France

M. Baghli, C. Bouthevilain, Olivier de Bandt (), Henri Fraisse, Hervé LE BIHAN () and P. Rousseaux

Documents de Travail from Banque de France

Abstract: This Study and Research Paper is devoted to different estimates of the French economy's potential output and output gap. Several methods, which are presented in detail, are put forward to measure these indicators. The first two sections of the paper profile statistical univariate approaches: smoothing using the Hodrick-Prescott filter; and estimation of a trend, potentially including breaks. The next two sections extend the discussion on statistical techniques to multivariate cases. To be precise, they involve the analysis of structural VAR models and unobserved component models. The final section proposes a structural method for estimating potential output, where business sector output is described by a Cobb-Douglas function, while that of the non-business sector is assumed to be exogenous. For this structural method, the NAIRU has to be calculated before estimating the short to medium-term level of potential output.

Date: 2002
View list of references

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.banque-france.fr/fr/publications/telechar/ner/ner89.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bfr:banfra:89

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Documents de Travail from Banque de France
Address: Banque de France 31 Rue Croix des Petits Champs LABOLOG - 49-1404 75049 PARIS
Contact information at EDIRC.
Series data maintained by Thierry Demoulin ().