The Validity of the ELG Hypothesis in the MENA Region: Cointegration and Error Correction Model Analysis

Aamer Abu-Qarn () and Abu-Bader, Suleiman ()
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Abu-Bader, Suleiman: Department of Economics, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev

No 134, Working Papers from Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics

Abstract: The paper examines the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis for nine Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries in three-variable vector autoregressive and error correction models. When considering total exports, our results reject the ELG hypothesis in almost all of these countries. When we examine only manufactured exports, we find no support for ELG in countries with relatively low shares of manufactured exports in total merchandise exports but strong support in countries with relatively high shares. These findings suggest that promoting exports may contribute to economic growth only after a certain threshold of manufactured exports has been reached.

Keywords: ELG; MENA; Middle East and North Africa; economic growth; export promotion; Granger causality; cointegration; error correction model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O4 F43 O53 C32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2001
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Published in Applied Economics, August 2004, pages 1685 – 1695

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http://www.econ.bgu.ac.il/papers/134.pdf First version, 2001 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: The Validity of the ELG Hypothesis in the MENA Region: Cointegration and Error Correction Model Analysis (2001)
Journal Article: The validity of the ELG hypothesis in the MENA region: cointegration and error correction model analysis (2004)
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