Risk, Uncertainty, and Option Exercise

Jianjun Miao () and Neng Wang ()
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Laurence Kotlikoff ()

No WP2007-016, Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series from Boston University - Department of Economics

Abstract: Many economic decisions can be described as an option exercise or optimal stopping problem under uncertainty. Motivated by experimental evidence such as the Ellsberg Paradox, we follow Knight (1921) and distinguish risk from uncertainty. To afford this distinction, we adopt the multiple-priors utility model. We show that the impact of ambiguity on the option exercise decision depends on the relative degrees of ambiguity about continuation payoffs and termination payoffs. Consequently, ambiguity may accelerate or delay option exercise. We apply our results to investment and exit problems, and show that the myopic NPV rule can be optimal for an agent having an extremely high degree of ambiguity aversion.

Keywords: industry ambiguity; multiple-priors utility; real options; optimal stopping problem (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D81 G31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba and nep-dge
Date: 2007-03
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Related works:
Working Paper: Risk, Uncertainty, and Option Exercise (2004)
Working Paper: Risk, uncertainty and option exercise (2004)
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Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bos:wpaper:wp2007-016

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