LONG RUN AND CYCLICAL DYNAMICS IN THE US STOCK MARKET

Guglielmo Maria Caporale () and Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana ()

Economics and Finance Discussion Papers from Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University

Abstract: This paper examines the long-run dynamics and the cyclical structure of the US stock market using fractional integration techniques. We implement a version of the tests of Robinson (1994a), which enables one to consider unit roots with possibly fractional orders of integration both at the zero (long-run) and the cyclical frequencies. We examine the following series: inflation, real risk-free rate, real stock returns, equity premium and price/dividend ratio,annually from 1871 to 1993. When focusing exclusively on the long-run or zero frequency, the estimated order of integration varies considerably, but nonstationarity is found only for the price/dividend ratio. When the cyclical component is also taken into account, the series appear to be stationary but to exhibit long memory with respect to both components in almost all cases. The exception is the price/dividend ratio, whose order of integration is higher than 0.5 but smaller than 1 for the long-run frequency, and is between 0 and 0.5 for the cyclical component. Also, mean reversion occurs in all cases. Finally, we use six different criteria to compare the forecasting performance of the fractional (at both zero and cyclical frequencies) models with others based on fractional and integer differentiation only at the zero frequency. The results show that the former outperform the others in a number of cases.

New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cfn, nep-ets, nep-fin, nep-fmk, nep-for and nep-mac
Date: 2005-06

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Related works:
Working Paper: Long-run and Cyclical Dynamics in the US Stock Market (2004)
Working Paper: Long Run and Cyclical Dynamics in the US Stock Market (2007)
Working Paper: Long-run and Cyclical Dynamics in the US Stock Market (2004)
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Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bru:bruedp:05-09

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