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The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles

Paul Cashin (), Kamiar Mohaddes () and Mehdi Raissi

Cambridge Working Papers in Economics from Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge

Abstract: This paper analyses spillovers from macroeconomic shocks in systemic economies (China, the Euro Area, and the United States) to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as well as outward spillovers from a GDP shock in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and MENA oil exporters to the rest of the world. This analysis is based on a Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 to 2011Q2. Spillovers are transmitted across economies via trade, financial, and commodity price linkages. The results show that the MENA countries are more sensitive to developments in China than to shocks in the Euro Area or the United States, in line with the direction of evolving trade patterns and the emergence of China as a key driver of the global economy. Outward spillovers from the GCC region and MENA oil exporters are likely to be stronger in their immediate geographical proximity, but also have global implications.

Keywords: Global VAR (GVAR); interconnectedness; global macroeconomic modeling; impulse responses; macroeconomic shocks; international business cycle. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E17 E32 F44 O53 Q41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ara
Date: 2012-11-01
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