Business Cycles in India

Pami Dua () and Anirvan Banerji ()

No 146, Working papers from Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics

Abstract: This paper describes business and growth rate cycles with special reference to the Indian economy. It uses the classical NBER approach to determine the timing of recessions and expansions in the Indian economy, as well as the chronology of growth rate cycles, viz., the timing of speedups and slowdowns in economic growth. The reference chronology for business as well as growth rate cycles is determined on the basis of the consensus of key coincident indicators of the Indian economy, along with a composite coincident index comprised of those indicators, which tracks fluctuations in current economic activity. Finally, it describes the performance of the leading index – a composite index of leading economic indicators, designed to anticipate business cycle and growth rate cycle upturns and downturns.

Keywords: business cycles; growth rate cycles; coincident index; leading index, Indian economy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cwa and nep-mac
Date: 2006-08
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Working Paper: Business Cycles in India (2007)
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