A Bivariate Causality between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: Evidence from Recent Asia Flu

Clive W. J. Granger, Bwo-Nung Huang and Chin Wei Yang

University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series from Department of Economics, UC San Diego

Abstract: This paper applies recently developed unit root and cointegration models to determine the appropriate Granger causality relations between stock prices and exchange rates using recent Asian flu data. Coupled with impulse response functions, it is found that data from Japan and Thailand are in agreement with this approach, so that exchange rates leads stock prices with positive correlation. On the other hand, data of Taiwan suggests the result predicted by the portfolio approach: stock prices lead exchange rates with negative correlation. Data from Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, and the Philippines indicate strong feedback relations while that of Singapore fails to reveal any recognizable pattern.

* National Chung-Cheng University, Taiwan

** Clarion University of Pennsylvania

Date: 1998-04
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Related works:
Working Paper: A Bivariate Causality between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: Evidence from Recent Asia Flu (1998)
Journal Article: A bivariate causality between stock prices and exchange rates: evidence from recent Asianflu (2000)
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