The UK Intranational Trade Cycle

Michael John Artis () and Toshihiro Okubo ()

SERC Discussion Papers from Spatial Economics Research Centre, LSE

Abstract: The paper uses annual data on real GDP for the UK regions and 12 manufacturing sectors toderive regional and regional/sectoral business cycles using an H-P filter. The cohesion of thecycles is examined via cross-correlations and comparisons made with the regional cycles forJapan, the United States and the EuroArea. The UK emerges as especially cohesive andefforts to explain the overall cross-correlations of regional GDP are not very successfulowing to the low variance of the explicand; when attention is turned to the sectoral/regionalcycles, with their greater variance it is possible to demonstrate that economic variables suchas distance, dissimilarity in structure and level of output play a significant role in explainingthe variance in the cross-correlations. A significant feature of the cross-correlations inrelation to those of EU countries is that whilst they continue to provide support for the "UKidiosyncrasy" they no longer do so as strongly as they did in earlier data samples

Keywords: intranational business cycle; regional business cycles; income convergence; Hodrick-Prescott filter; Euro-sympathy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 E41 R11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-bec and nep-mac
Date: 2009-04
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http://www.spatialeconomics.ac.uk/textonly/SERC/pu ... nload/sercdp0019.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: The UK Intranational Trade Cycle (2009)
Working Paper: The UK Intranational Trade Cycle (2008)
Working Paper: The UK Intranational Trade Cycle (2009)
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Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cep:sercdp:0019

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