Fertility, Mortality, and the Developed World’s Demographic Transition

Hans Fehr (), Sabine Jokisch () and Laurence Kotlikoff ()

No CESifo Working Paper No. 1326, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo Group Munich

Abstract: This study uses Fehr, Jokisch, and Kotlikoff’s (2004a) dynamic general equilibrium model to analyze the effects of changes in fertility and mortality on the developed world’s demographic transition. The model features three regions – the U.S., Japan, and the EU-15 – and incorporates age- and time-specific fertility and mortality rates, detailed fiscal institutions, and international capital mobility, subject to adjustment costs. Our simulations confirm the offsetting fiscal and economic consequences of both higher fertility and lower mortality rates. The simulations indicate very minor effects on the developed world’s rather bleak baseline transition path from either major increases in fertility rates or major reductions in mortality rates.

Keywords: demographic transition; computable general equilibrium model (CGE); fertility; mortality (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D58 H55 J11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-afr, nep-hea and nep-ltv
Date: 2004
View list of references View citations in EconPapers

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.cesifo-group.de/DocCIDL/cesifo1_wp1326.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Fertility, mortality and the developed world's demographic transition (2008)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1326

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo Group Munich
Address: Poschingerstrasse 5, 81679 Munich
Series data maintained by Julio Saavedra ().