Preserving the Ocean Circulation: Implications for Climate Policy

Klaus Keller, Kelvin Tan, Francois M.M. Morel and David F. Bradford

No CESifo Working Paper No. 199, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo Group Munich

Abstract: Climate modelers have recognized the possibility of abrupt climate changes caused by a reorganization of the North Atlantic's current pattern (technically known as a thermohaline circ ulation collapse). This circulation system now warms north-western Europe and transports carbon dioxide to the deep oceans. The posited collapse of this system could produce severe cooling in north-western Europe, even when general global warming is in progress. In this paper we use a simple integrated assessment model to investigate the optimal policy response to this risk. Adding the constraint of avoiding a thermohaline circulation collapse would significantly reduce the allowable greenhouse gas emissio ns in the long run along an otimal path. Our analysis implies that relatively small damages associated with a collapse (less than 1% of gross world product) would justify a considerable reduction of future carbon dioxide emissions.

JEL-codes: D90 Q20 Q30 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1999
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Working Paper: Preserving the Ocean Circulation: Implications for Climate Policy (2000)
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