3-Step Analysis of Public Finances Sustainability: the Case of the European Union

Antonio Afonso and Christophe Rault ()

No CESifo Working Paper No. 2393, CESifo Working Paper Series from CESifo Group Munich

Abstract: We use a 3-step analysis to assess the sustainability of public finances in the EU27. Firstly, we perform the SURADF specific panel unit root test to investigate the mean-reverting behaviour of general government expenditures and revenues ratios. Secondly, we apply the bootstrap panel cointegration techniques that account for the time series and cross-sectional dependencies of the regression error. Thirdly, we check for a structural long-run equation between general government expenditures and revenues via SUR analysis. While results imply that public finances were not unsustainable for the EU panel, fiscal sustainability is an issue in most countries, with a below unit estimated coefficient of expenditure in the cointegration relation.

Keywords: fiscal sustainability; EU; panel cointegration (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C23 E62 H62 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
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Related works:
Working Paper: 3-step analysis of public finances sustainability - the case of the European Union (2008)
Working Paper: 3-Step Analysis of Public Finances Sustainability: the Case of the European Union* (2008)
Working Paper: 3-Step Analysis of Public Finances Sustainability: the Case of the European Union (2008)
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