New Composite Leading Indicators for Hungary and Poland

Harm Bandholz

No Ifo Working Paper No. 3, Ifo Working Paper Series from Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich

Abstract: This paper presents new composite leading indicators for the two largest of the EU accession countries, Poland and Hungary. Using linear and non-linear dynamic factor models we find for both countries that a parsimonious specification, which combines national business cycle indicators,series reflecting trade volumes and supranational business expectations makes for the most reliable business cycle leaders. The composite leading indicators significantly Granger-cause GDP growth rates, while the estimated Markov-switching probabilities of being in a recessionarystate agree well with a priori determined cycle chronologies.

Keywords: Business Cycles; Composite Leading Indicators; EU Enlargement; Markovswitching,Turning Points (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 C53 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: Written
View citations in EconPapers

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.cesifo-group.de/DocDL/IfoWorkingPaper-3.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ces:ifowps:_3

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Ifo Working Paper Series from Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich
Address: Poschingerstrasse 5, 81679 Munich
Contact information at EDIRC.
Series data maintained by Julio Saavedra ().