The Adjusted Solow Residual and Asset Returns (Subsequently published in "Eastern Economic Journal", 2007, 33,(2), pp. 231-255. )

Mark J. Lee ()

No CARF-F-056, CARF F-Series from Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo

Abstract: The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of a measured aggregate productivity shock on asset returns. To achieve this, a simple equilibrium business cycle model is presented to show that an aggregate productivity shock can be identified as a factor affecting asset returns. The paper uses the Solow residual to measure productivity changes, but deviates from standard practice by incorporating variations in capital utilization rates. The paper first develops the theoretical link between productivity shocks and asset returns with no adjustment costs, and then tests that link with the two measures of productivity, the Solow residual with and without variation in capital utilization. Results based on U.S post-war data show significant differences in the dynamic impacts of these two measures of productivity. The VAR evidence suggests that technology changes, measured with variation in capital utilization, have a delayed impact on asset returns, a distinct finding. Finally, policy implications of the findings are discussed.

Date: 2006-01
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