Trends, Cycles and Convergence

Andrew C. Harvey

Working Papers Central Bank of Chile from Central Bank of Chile

Abstract: This article first discusses ways of decomposing a time series into trend and cyclical components, paying particular attention to a new class of model for cycles. It is shown how using an auxiliary series can help to achieve a more satisfactory decomposition. A discussion of balanced growth then leads on to the construction of new models for converging economies. The preferred models combine unobserved components with an error correction mechanism and allow a decomposition into trend, cycle and convergence components. This provides insight into what has happened in the past, enables the current state of an economy to be more accurately assessed and gives a procedure for the prediction of future observations. The methods are applied to data on the US, Japan and Chile.

New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm and nep-lam
Date: 2002-05
View list of references View citations in EconPapers

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.bcentral.cl/estudios/documentos-trabajo/pdf/dtbc155.pdf (application/pdf)
Our link check indicates that this URL is bad, the error code is: 404 Not Found

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:chb:bcchwp:155

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers Central Bank of Chile from Central Bank of Chile
Contact information at EDIRC.
Series data maintained by Claudio Sepulveda ().