The Anatomy of Unemployment Dynamics

Jaap H. Abbring (), Gerard J. van den Berg and Jan van Ours ()

No 1202, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: This paper examines the relation between individual unemployment durations and incidence on the one hand, and the time-varying macroeconomic conditions in the economy on the other. We allow for calendar time effects acting on the exit probabilities for all currently unemployed. We also allow for the composition of the inflow into unemployment to depend on calendar time at the moment of inflow. In both cases we distinguish between business cycle effects and seasonal effects. We apply the model to aggregate unemployment duration data, in which we allow for unobserved heterogeneity and correlated measurement errors. We do not make parametric assumptions on the genuine duration dependence pattern or the unobserved heterogeneity distribution. The results enable us to give a complete decomposition of the dynamics of unemployment over calendar time. This is also used to test the popular ranking model of unemployment.

Keywords: Business Cycle; Duration Dependence; Seasonality; Unemployment; Unemployment Duration (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C41 E32 J64 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1995-06
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations View citations in EconPapers (2) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.cepr.org/pubs/dps/DP1202.asp (application/pdf)
CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org

Related works:
Journal Article: The anatomy of unemployment dynamics (2002)
Working Paper: The anatomy of unemployment dynamics (2002)
Working Paper: The Anatomy of Unemployment Dynamics (1999)
Working Paper: The anatomy of unemployment dynamics (1994)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1202

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.cepr.org/pubs/dps/DP1202.asp

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers
Address: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ
Series data maintained by ().