Aggregate and Regional Disaggregate Fluctuations

No 1236, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: This paper models fluctuations in regional disaggregates as a non-stationary, dynamically evolving distribution. Doing so enables the study of the dynamics of aggregate fluctuations jointly with those of the rich cross-section of regional disaggregates. For the United States, the leading state (regardless of which it happens to be) contains strong predictive power for aggregate fluctuations. This effect is difficult to understand if only aggregate disturbances affect aggregate business cycles through aggregate propagation mechanisms. Instead, a better picture might be one of a `wave' of regional dynamics, rippling across the national economy.

Keywords: Aggregate Disturbance; Business Cycle; Distribution Dynamics; Regional Fluctuation; Stochastic Kernel (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 C33 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: Written 1995-09

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.cepr.org/pubs/dps/DP1236.asp (application/pdf)
CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org

Related works:
Working Paper: Aggregate and Regional Disaggregate Fluctuations (1996)
Journal Article: Aggregate and Regional Disaggregate Fluctuations (1996)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.cepr.org/pubs/dps/DP1236.asp

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers
Address: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 53--56 Great Sutton Street, London EC1V 0DG
Series data maintained by ().